cozcharlie
Contributor
Sadly I have plenty of experience in this. I think I have had 8 round trips cancelled to Cozumel since mid-March. I have a home there and normally spend about 40 percent of my time there
If you plans are flexible and you don’t mind getting stuck with credit on the airline and credit with the hotel and dive operator if one or both cancels you can try going in late June
Things to consider :
1). Covid in Mexico is getting worse, not better. Cases and deaths hitting new highs almost daily. Things have moved slightly backwards recently on Cozumel—had to tighten the curfew after loosening it. The change in curfew wasn’t that big of a deal , but was likely done as a signal to people that things were far from over. Also note the reported numbers are way lower than the actual numbers (especially in terms of number of cases). The mortality rate isn’t the 20 percent implied by official statistics for Q Roo, it is just that they primarily only count the really sick cases due to limited testing capacity You can see post 147 in Covid updates thread if you like. Also please note that even the deaths in Mexico are almost certainly undercounted —numerous organizations have found that Total deaths have jumped more than the reported Covid deaths would imply (part of this is because Covid might be listed as the second or third cause on the death certificate as opposed to the first cause , part of it might be just confusion , part of it might be various authorities just don’t want to see big numbers (or all of the above ). Some people throw a fit when you question the government, but there is a reason why Mexico always scores poorly on world corruption rankings. That said, Cozumel is almost certainly in better shape than the rest of Q Roo (and much of the US) , but really hard to be sure of the exact situation given the data issues
2). Ocean is currently closed to diving/snorkeling/swimming This is a federal issue I haven’t seen anyone in authority say when it will re-open. Obviously it is somewhat ridiculous to close shore-based snorkeling and swimming since they are lower Covid risk than walking down the street I Imagine this closure is because many people (in US and Mexico) consider sitting on the beach drinking beer to be swimming and even more people consider standing in 3 feet of water drinking beer and playing with kids to be swimming This issue is particularly important to me because I would be perfectly happy snorkeling for 3 hours a day and spending the rest the time in my condo watching Netflix or reading—however I do not plan to return until I am sure I can snorkel without catching grief from neighbors and/or the navy. I heard people were kind of looking the other way for true swimmers and snorkelers entering the water directly from their homes for a while (since that is essentially our backyard and more or less zero covid risk ) but a tourist having to get rescued while snorkeling didn’t help things
3. A lot of airlines adjust their schedules with fairly short notice. United seems to cancel flights about a month at a time about 30 days before the start of the month—theoretically I have two trips booked for July but I kind of expect them to disappear like May and June flights did American has been better but I think they cancelled a week of flights around Memorial Day about 3 weeks out. Delta shut down their Cozumel operations permanently (got rid of employees and has no plans to come back ) Southwest also cancelled their Cozumel schedule through the fall. . You can try to fly into Cancun , but recognize these flights are at risk also and the ferry schedule has been pared back substantially (2 a day right now) . You can look it up, but the number of trips per day they are running now is not necessarily representative of what they will be running 3 weeks from now. You might get stuck killing several hours each way in PDC (or even overnight )
4). As people noted there is a serious curfew right now. Theoretically it will be better in June but if cases get worse the curfew might stay or get worse. It is way worse than any stay at home order in the US.
5). I gather you are from Arkansas, where cases are rising. If you bring Covid with you to the island I don’t think the Mexicans are going to be too appreciative. Also I am sure you would prefer a US hospital to a Mexican hospital for COVID. (Although I have numerous friends who have been in CMC for non-Covid issues over the years and didn’t mind it ).
If you are OK with all of the above , go ahead and try to come down
Oddly enough, I am not opposed to tourism starting up as long as people know what they are getting into. Honestly I just don’t think Cozumel or Cancún can afford to be shut down until next Spring when hopefully we will have a large portion of the US population vaccinated (which is definitely not guaranteed). Tourism is just too big a portion of the Q Roo and Mexican economy—in particular it is a large source of foreign exchange. Mexico’s economy was doing poorly before this pandemic hit. We have already stressed the economy hard with a 2 month shut down, 10 more months without foreign tourist dollars just seems impossible Mexico will likely just have to accept some Covid deaths in exchange for revenue to keep people from starving to death
Mathematically it is hard not to arrive at the answer that you will have to open up for financial reasons long before you wanted to for the medical reasons , just really sucks if you or someone you know winds up as collateral damage in this calculation
