When do you think virus-related disruptions will end?

[paolobl65]

Italy death rate is no doubt higher because its hospitals are overwhelmed.

Sorry , this is not the truth .
Here in Italy the hospitals are under pressure , for sure , but they have still enough places in intensive therapy for the most difficul cases .
Death rate is higher because Italy make Covid Test only to simptomatic people not to everyone .

 

[Luko]

Death rate is higher because Italy make Covid Test only to simptomatic people not to everyone .

Look at Germany for instance where they perform 500.000 tests par week and their death rate is <<1% the lowest recorded. So it all depends on the number of cases found by testing. Btw Germany and Korea experiences probably help finding the actual death rate of the virus, which is probably lower than said.
This is the same case here in France where we have even less tests than Italy. and the death rate is higher than asian countries but slightly lower than in Italy, although we have the same beds/people ratio.
I believe there is also a demographic factor that doesn't help on top of limited tests, Italy has one of the oldest population in Europe which is already an old continent compared to Asia for instance. That's the problem of living a long life....

 

[Blackcrusader]

So far Taiwan has had the best response as they have been preparing for this since SARS 2003.


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[CWK]

I believe Indonesia expects 600,000 to 700,000 cases by the end of April.

Indonesia jangka kes COVID-19 cecah 700,000 bulan depan

 

[Dan]

I believe Indonesia expects 600,000 to 700,000 cases by the end of April.

Indonesia jangka kes COVID-19 cecah 700,000 bulan depan

Interesting article. Thanks for the link. First time I read an article in Malay (bahasa Melayu). Some words are unfamiliar like “kes” which I guess it means “case” in English or “kasus” in Indonesian (bahasa Indonesia) & kerajaan which means “kingdom’ in English, which we don’t have in Indonesia, as it’s a republic country. For such word we use “negara” or “nation” in English.

Anyway, back to the topic, 600,000 - 700,000 cases in 4th most populated country in the world sounds reasonable & scary. I don’t think Indonesia is prepared for it. It’s going to be the next hot bed unless the social distancing, warm weather and some less densely populated & more isolated islands help to slowdown the spreading.

 

[CWK]

Interesting article. Thanks for the link. First time I read an article in Malay (bahasa Melayu). Some words are unfamiliar like “kes” which I guess it means “case” in English or “kasus” in Indonesian (bahasa Indonesia) & kerajaan which means “kingdom’ in English, which we don’t have in Indonesia, as it’s a republic country. For such word we use “negara” or “nation” in English.

Anyway, back to the topic, 600,000 - 700,000 cases in 4th most populated country in the world sounds reasonable & scary. I don’t think Indonesia is prepared for it. It’s going to be the next hot bed unless the social distancing, warm weather and some less densely populated & more isolated islands help to slowdown the spreading.

Kerajaan = government

600,000 to 700,000 is expected by the end of April. There are no projections for numbers at the end of May, June, July, or subsequent months. I think it will be bad.

 

[Dan]

Kerajaan = government

600,000 to 700,000 is expected by the end of April. There are no projections for numbers at the end of May, June, July, or subsequent months. I think it will be bad.

Government = Pemerintah

(I sure like you to talk to me in Malay and I’ll respond it in Indonesian and see if we can understand each other LOL)

Hopefully that would be the peak & it starts to level off & even decrease after April.

 

[nippurmagnum]

Actually, worldwide the Spanish flu killed off 50 million people, out of a worldwide population of 1.8 billion.
Assuming that before herd immunity takes control 60% of the population must have either gotten Covid19 or been immunized (no immunization yet) and the current death rate stays at 5% of the infected (which is probably very optimistic, because so far the infected have had access to medical treatment, worldwide that would no longer hold true) we are looking at 214 million people dieing.

That is more than the number of people who have died in all wars since 1900

Look around you and try to imagine that every 3rd person over 70 will be dead next year, and a lot of younger people too.

Michael

The current death rate is actually around 0.6 percent of the infected, in every country in which there has been broad testing. It's only around 5 percent for people who have are infected AND develop severe symptoms. So that would reduce your estimate of total mortality by a a factor of 10.

There is also the fact that the death rate is going to naturally decline as the most vulnerable members of the society succumb to the virus. (That's a horribly dispassionate statement, but it's true.) So you can't assume that the 5 percent mortality rate for people with severe symptoms will hold over time.

For perspective, a mortality rate of 0.6 percent is about three times the mortality rate of regular flu.

Finally, you have to factor in that the most elderly and immunocompromised victims of the virus might only have a few months to live anyway, even without the virus. Last summer I lost a very dear family member who was 82 years old and was in late stage lung cancer. I have little doubt that this virus would have killed her if she had contracted it. But she only had months left to live, and at a rapidly declining quality of life, too. If she had died today, the media would be reporting her as a victim of the flu. In reality, she was a victim of having lived a long, full life, and having smoked for a good part of it.

 

[Rickk]

I wonder if that Nobel laureate happened to read Sylvia Browne’s End of Days book?

View attachment 576209 View attachment 576210

I don't recall the flesh eating bacteria in 2010. Was it in all the newspapers and I missed it?

Make enough predictions and sooner or later you will get one right, even a blind chicken gets some corn.

 

[Centrals]

So far Taiwan has had the best response as they have been preparing for this since SARS 2003.

HK is prepared as well but the civil servants have to take instructions from Peking unlike ROC which is a sovereign state.
The HKSAR Gov is reacting to the situation rather than taking initiation! Civil servants are never ever up to the challenge of such magnitude. They are only trained to execute an order. Less you do less mistake is their mentally.