When do you think virus-related disruptions will end?

[Blackcrusader]

I don't think that it'll be safe to travel before 80% of the world's population has either had the Corona virus, or have been immunized. In other words: Not this year, and probably not next year. If the immunization is developed and patented in the USA - NEVER, it'll be several orders of magnitude too expensive for everyone other than the top 5%, and because of this, several hundred million lesser people will die. Michael

Taiwan has been onto developing a vaccine since last year so maybe ahead of other countries. Also Taiwan since SARS 2003 has been temperature testing all arrivals since then and many people were collected right at the airport and taken to quarantine.
The world leader with only 2 deaths and 170 cases since November is Taiwan yet we have hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese who returned from China. Most actually got sick by traveling in Europe and several cases were sick tourists traveling to Taiwan.

No lock downs, plenty of food and normal household supplies. Taiwan banned exporting masks for a period of time and masks were rationed to each person by their Identity card number.

I would say travel will not return to normal until July and even then what is going to be "normal"

Outbreaks are going to continue to occur in countries that do not have the capacity to do testing, Egypt Turkey Indonesia Philippines Thailand Malaysia and many others.

For those who evade self quarantine the fine is US$32,950 a few people have found out. You are required to give your cell phone number for location tracking and stay at the one address... They go to check you are there.

Taiwan quarantine evader spent 4 days at Inte... | Taiwan News

 

[jjmochi]

I agree I think the virus will not be stamped out until a vaccine is found which is 12-18 months away supposedly. Or until enough people gets it that we get herd immunity naturally which is probably an even longer timeline.

What I'm asking is a slightly different question - when would these unprecedented travel restrictions and total lock downs be eased and life would return to a normalcy. I think it will happen BEFORE the virus is stamped out and a vaccine is found. It essentially requires us to flatten the curve and get the virus under control. I'm optimistic that if everyone just follows the rules of social distancing, it can be done in 2 months or so. This was the case in China, even Wuhan (people are going back to work in 2 weeks), and even if you think China's numbers are fake, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, even South Korea were able to do the same. In HK we've been on lockdown since the end of Jan. The virus was brought under control and everyone went back to work at beginning of March. But then the rest of the world blew up and we got a second wave of imported cases so back we go to square 1. I'm expecting the situation in HK, Singapore, etc to return to normal (maybe 1-2 infections a day only, like we had in end of Feb/early March) in another 2 months now that foreigners are banned and we just have to deal with local transmission, and even more severe social distancing measures are being put in place.

HK is also back to normal as of a few weeks ago in terms of toilet paper, food supplies, even hand sanitizer is widely available now. The rest of the world will get there eventually- probably on the same 2 month lag as when they started social distancing measures. I think Europe finally got the message. Reading the NYTimes I'm doubtful the US will be able to do the same, already Trump is talking about easing restrictions by Easter...

 

[Blackcrusader]

HK is also back to normal as of a few weeks ago in terms of toilet paper, food supplies, even hand sanitizer is widely available now. The rest of the world will get there eventually- probably on the same 2 month lag as when they started social distancing measures. I think Europe finally got the message. Reading the NYTimes I'm doubtful the US will be able to do the same, already Trump is talking about easing restrictions by Easter...

HK is fooked as soon as they open the borders to China again. All countries around the world should ban any person from China for at least 12 months.

 

[clownfishsydney]

Answer: How long is of string?

 

[ontdiver]

It was suggested by Dr. Deborah Birx during a WH briefing that we are likely to go through two more cycles of COVID-19: in fall/winter 20/21 & 21/22. Obviously things will look better if a vaccine has been rolled out by then, but if I can't get travel insurance, whether I can fly or not is moot.

 

[W W Meixner]

As I am rebooking trips, curious when everyone else thinks will be safe to travel again

I have 2 more trips in July and Oct which I'm hopeful but not convinced can go ahead as planned. Wait and see for now

I think rebooking to 2021 is obviously the safe choice but will you try your luck doing anything earlier?

There's also a lot of 50% off deals now

I personally don't think restrictions will be lifted in April or May, June is a big maybe, July more likely, August probably, Sept+ should be ok. I just rebooked something to Christmas week

What do you think?

JJ...

I think you answered your own question...

My magic 8-ball is as reliable as anything right now...and it just said...''don't count on it''...

I'd happily predict any ones dive plans right now...$10. USD...I accept PAYPAL...

W.M...

 

[Luko]

Well, lots of people have opinions. Some pretend to have the skills of reading into the crystal ball, it seems the more you attend social medias, the more skillful you are ...
Since the correct answer is "nobody knows", at least I think the best answer is the one that won't harm and set you into a deep depression right now.
So I'll throw in an optimistic prediction made by a Nobel Prize in biophysics, mind you. (I like the statistical approach because not only I have a statistician background, you see that in the end when you don't know anything, the numbers are still there.)
Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: 'We're going to be fine'

 

[W W Meixner]

Well, lots of people have opinions. Some pretend to have the skills of reading into the crystal ball, it seems the more you attend social medias, the more skillful you are ...
Since the correct answer is "nobody knows", at least I think the best answer is the one that won't harm and set you into a deep depression right now.
So I'll throw in an optimistic prediction made by a Nobel Prize in biophysics, mind you. (I like the statistical approach because not only I have a statistician background, you see that in the end when you don't know anything, the numbers are still there.)
Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: 'We're going to be fine'

L...

It would seem the ''Laureate''...has just returned from Italy and has the ability to converse with the dead...''fine''...not so much...

I think my magic 8-ball prediction is far more accurate...

W.M...

 

[Luko]

L...

It would seem the ''Laureate''...has just returned from Italy and has the ability to converse with the dead...''fine''...not so much...

I think my magic 8-ball prediction is far more accurate...

W.M...

You look very skillful with your magic ball, you should do a career in Facebook.
Look if there are any epidemiologist vacancy too, since anyone in the social media seems to be one .

 

[Scraps]

The only thing I know about the future is that I'm bad at guessing what it will be.