As Coleman's girlfriend said at the end of "Trading Places" when asked whether lunch should be shrimp or cracked crab...
"Can't we have both?"
Frank, you're echoing one of my rallying cries here. There are "divers" and there are people who "want to go diving." The dive industry has never understood that these are largely two different groups of people. Sure there is some overlap... and one needs to be in the latter group first. However, the industry needs to recognize them as different segments, they should be treated differently, and we should have different expectations of them. It's the most basic of customer segmentation approaches.
The industry needs to...
- Focus diver acquisition efforts disproportionately on attracting people with a disproportionately high likelihood of staying with diving. Those who will "become divers." (Finding out who they are requires a little bit of effort, but it's fairly straightforward. Though it's NOT as easy as saying "non divers look just like divers demographically.")
- Accept those people who respond to our acquisition efforts but merely "want to go diving" with open arms. But spend disproportionately less effort/time/money trying to force them to "become divers." Doing so will waste our efforts and actually scare them away entirely. Make it efficient for them to get started and efficient to "become a diver" if they want to, but don't hit them over the head
- Focus diver retention efforts disproportionately on keeping those people with a disproportionately high likelihood of staying with diving. (See Step 1 above.)
Businesses like Walmart understand that there are customers who will only spend a few dollars a year at Walmart and that there are people who will spend thousands. They have efforts to attract - and keep - both. But those efforts are very different.